Analytical Overview of the Established Demographic Theories of Fertility: Agenda for Further Advancement

The demographic theory of fertility has interested prominent scholars for more than a century. Most recently and notably, Greenhalgh (1994), Van de Kaa (1995), de Bruijn (2006) and Leridon (2015) have dedicated their works to the analysis of the established demographic theories. They have provided a typology and analysis of demographic theories of fertility and illuminated many components of the latter, including the logic of theories’ development and evolution, their multidisciplinary nature and their “anchors” in the existing body of knowledge in their respective broader fields. Still, scholars acknowledge … “we still have no universally accepted explanation for why the Western post-war baby boom occurred, and why it ended. Nor do we have any clear idea of how fertility will evolve in countries where it is currently below replacement level. Homo demographicus is yet to be born…” (Leridon, 2015). The proposed agenda for advancing demographic theories include linking them to their predecessors in social sciences, analyzing them from the theory construction standpoint, providing distinctions between several branches of each of these theories, and outlining a strategy for the integration of compatible parts of these theories.

Population Review

Volume 63, Number 1, 2024

Type: Article, pp. 1-23

Analytical Overview of the Established Demographic Theories of Fertility: Agenda for Further Advancement

Author: Yuri Frantsuz

Authors affiliations: University of New Mexico, Department of Political Science

Corresponding author/address: Department of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131 (email: [email protected])

Abstract

The demographic theory of fertility has interested prominent scholars for more than a century. Most recently and notably, Greenhalgh (1994), Van de Kaa (1995), de Bruijn (2006) and Leridon (2015) have dedicated their works to the analysis of the established demographic theories. They have provided a typology and analysis of demographic theories of fertility and illuminated many components of the latter, including the logic of theories’ development and evolution, their multidisciplinary nature and their “anchors” in the existing body of knowledge in their respective broader fields. Still, scholars acknowledge … “we still have no universally accepted explanation for why the Western post-war baby boom occurred, and why it ended. Nor do we have any clear idea of how fertility will evolve in countries where it is currently below replacement level. Homo demographicus is yet to be born…” (Leridon, 2015). The proposed agenda for advancing demographic theories include linking them to their predecessors in social sciences, analyzing them from the theory construction standpoint, providing distinctions between several branches of each of these theories, and outlining a strategy for the integration of compatible parts of these theories.

Keywords

fertility, demographic theory

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